Cuba is once again standing at a crossroads. Decades after surviving the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union, the island nation now confronts what many analysts describe as its most severe crisis since the early 1990s. Mounting U.S. pressure, dwindling oil supplies, and an escalating jet fuel shortage have combined to create a volatile mix of political and economic strain.
At the heart of the uncertainty is one pressing question: What lies ahead for Cuba as Trump tightens the pressure while the island faces a crippling jet fuel shortage?
A New Wave of U.S. Pressure
Donald Trump has intensified U.S. actions against Cuba, dramatically increasing economic and diplomatic pressure. Following a controversial military operation on January 3 targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—a long-time ally of Havana—Cuba reported that 32 of its citizens were killed in the incident.
Since then, Washington has taken sweeping measures that effectively sever Cuba’s access to Venezuelan oil, a lifeline for the island’s struggling economy. Trump has labeled Cuba’s government “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and vowed to impose tariffs on any country supplying the island with oil.
The move has sent a chilling signal to potential trading partners, discouraging nations from stepping in to help.
Havana’s Defiant Response
Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s president, has responded with firm resistance. Declaring that “surrender is not an option,” he condemned Washington’s actions while simultaneously expressing willingness to engage in dialogue—provided discussions occur without preconditions or coercion.
This balancing act reflects the government’s broader strategy: project resilience at home while keeping diplomatic doors open abroad.
Yet defiance alone cannot power a nation.
The Crippling Jet Fuel Shortage
Cuba’s deepening fuel crisis has now reached its aviation sector. Authorities have warned that international airlines may no longer be able to refuel on the island due to severe shortages.
The consequences were swift. Air Canada canceled all flights to Cuba, though it has arranged to repatriate thousands of stranded travelers. Tourism—one of Cuba’s most vital sources of foreign currency—is now under threat.
For a country that relies heavily on winter visitors, particularly from Canada, the timing could not be worse.
Rationing and Emergency Measures
Facing shrinking oil supplies, Cuba’s government has introduced sweeping austerity measures aimed at preserving essential services.
Reports indicate the plan includes:
Restricting fuel sales nationwide
Closing certain tourist establishments
Shortening school days
Reducing the state workweek to four days
These steps echo the “Special Period” of the 1990s, when Cuba was forced to endure extreme economic hardship after losing Soviet support.
According to Professor Par Kumaraswami of the University of Nottingham, the current moment is “as serious as it has been since the 1990s.” Back then, Cuba survived through improvisation, rationing, and social solidarity. The question now is whether the same formula will work again.
International Reactions: Allies Hesitate
While Mexico has provided humanitarian assistance, it has suspended oil shipments, seeking to maintain balanced relations with both Havana and Washington. Trump’s tariff threats have discouraged many nations from openly supporting Cuba’s energy needs.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has voiced grave concern. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric warned that the humanitarian situation could worsen dramatically—and potentially collapse—if Cuba’s oil demands remain unmet.
With domestic energy production insufficient to sustain national needs, blackouts and service disruptions may intensify.
Tourism in Turmoil
Tourism has long been a financial lifeline for Cuba’s government. Destinations like Varadero and Old Havana typically welcome waves of foreign travelers, particularly during the winter season.
But airline cancellations and fuel scarcity threaten this revenue stream. A prolonged disruption could push the economy further into contraction, reducing access to hard currency that funds imports of food, medicine, and infrastructure supplies.
Unlike in previous crises, Cuba lacks a powerful external patron capable of stepping in decisively.
“An Accelerating Collapse?”
Robert Munks, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, describes the current trajectory as potentially leading toward “an accelerating collapse” of essential services.
Washington has also limited Cuba’s access to hard currency and pressured Nicaragua to end visa-free travel for Cuban citizens. These measures further restrict economic breathing room.
While the Cuban government has pledged to expand renewable energy, critics argue the scale and timing are insufficient to offset immediate shortages.
Civil unrest remains a possibility if daily life deteriorates significantly. Energy blackouts, food scarcity, and limited transportation could test public patience.
A Test for BRICS
Cuba’s crisis may also serve as a litmus test for the expanding BRICS bloc. The island recently gained “partner country” status within the group, strengthening ties with Brazil, Russia, and China.
China has publicly criticized U.S. actions, stating it opposes measures that undermine the Cuban people’s right to development. Russia has described Havana’s fuel situation as “truly critical,” blaming Washington’s escalating pressure for worsening the crisis.
For observers like Helen Yaffe of the University of Glasgow, the moment represents a defining challenge: if BRICS cannot effectively support one of its own partners under pressure, questions about the bloc’s global influence may grow louder.
National Resolve vs. Economic Reality
Despite mounting hardships, many Cubans remain deeply protective of national sovereignty. Frustration over daily struggles coexists with a renewed sense of patriotism among segments of the population.
History offers perspective. In the early 1990s, few believed Cuba could endure the shock of losing Soviet support. Yet the country adapted—through rationing, urban agriculture, tourism expansion, and tight social controls.
Today, however, the geopolitical environment is different. The island’s options appear narrower, and global economic uncertainty complicates rescue efforts.
What Comes Next?
Speculation has emerged that President Díaz-Canel could face mounting political pressure in the coming months. Some analysts suggest the possibility of a managed transition similar to Venezuela’s political maneuvering under Maduro.
Others believe the Cuban leadership will attempt to “muddle through” until U.S. political dynamics potentially shift after upcoming elections.
Ultimately, the unfolding crisis circles back to the central concern: What lies ahead for Cuba as Trump tightens the pressure while the island faces a crippling jet fuel shortage?
The answer likely lies in a mix of endurance, diplomacy, and international alignment. If oil supplies remain constrained and tourism falters, humanitarian conditions could deteriorate further. If BRICS partners step up meaningfully, Cuba may gain temporary relief.
One thing is certain: the coming months will test not only Cuba’s leadership but also the resilience of its people. History suggests the island has a remarkable capacity to survive against the odds. Whether that resilience is enough this time remains to be seen.
